The pace at which real estate trends morph in a resort market such as Tahoe and Truckee is often quite gradual. Seasonal considerations often mask these shifts creating a lag time before definitions can be known. Only in certain rare instances are these shifts so apparent, and when they are the underlying reasons are generally non-economic.
Much like in March 2020 when the emergence of COVID rendered so many to shelter-in-place, the fires on either side of Lake Tahoe and Truckee have had an understandably similar impact. Though demand has not waned, and supply has not surged, market activity has slowed to a trickle following a 16-month surge that defined the most prolific period ever for Tahoe real estate. In the simplest terms, the experience of touring a property and making buying decisions has become an unenjoyable experience based upon smoke and evacuation orders. We simply cannot in good conscience recommend that people visit the region given the current circumstances.
We have no clarity as to when these conditions may abate and remain optimistic for the health and safety of our community. From past experience, we expect that normalized conditions will bring most consumers back to the marketplace though it seems undeniable that some scars will remain. It is not unreasonable to expect a small surge in standing inventory based upon the absence of absorption in the days to come. While this could stymie the upward trajectory of values, there is little reason to believe that sellers will be in a position of distress that could meaningfully erode prices.
A report at the end of September will reflect the circumstances we are contending with today. Depending on the next days and weeks, that information may be no more relevant than a report on the robust closings in August.
Tahoe Mountain Realty wishes the best for all those being impacted by the Caldor and Dixie Fires and expresses our appreciation for those working on the front lines to keep us safe.
