As we reflect on September 2024, the Truckee – North Lake Tahoe real estate market tells a story of seasonal transition. With the bustling summer months now behind us, the market has begun to enter a quieter, more measured phase, typical of this time of year. For buyers, sellers, and industry observers alike, understanding the shifts in September can offer valuable insight into how the market may evolve as we head into the final quarter of 2024.

Sales Volume Takes a Breather

September concluded with 94 home sales, marking a significant 24% decrease from the previous month and a 27% dip from the same time last year. This steep decline signals the typical end of the summer rush, as potential buyers become more selective, and sellers recalibrate their expectations. It’s no surprise that we’re seeing fewer transactions, as this seasonal lull is expected after the vibrant summer activity. This time of year often allows savvy buyers the chance to explore opportunities with more negotiating power, while sellers may be more inclined to close deals before winter sets in.

Month-over-Month Total Sales Transactions

Price Trends: A Mixed Bag

While sales may have slowed, home values in the region remain robust. The median sold price in September slightly dipped 2% from the prior month, landing at $1,215,000. However, when compared to September 2023, this represents a healthy 15% year-over-year increase. For perspective, the highest median price we saw in all of 2023 was $1,210,000, so prices are holding strong. Despite this, buyers are still negotiating, as homes sold at roughly 2.8% below asking price this past month. This demonstrates that the market is balancing in favor of buyers being able to find opportunities to negotiate, yet sellers are still securing strong offers.

Month-over-Month Total Sales Transactions

Inventory and Market Dynamics

The inventory level slightly decreased by 3% in September, landing at 5.04 months of supply. While this represents a small contraction from the previous month, it’s still 25% higher than where we were in September 2023. This balance reflects a common seasonal trend: some sellers prefer to remove their homes from the market as winter approaches, while opportunistic buyers take advantage of the reduced competition.

Months of Inventory

The median days on market stayed relatively steady at 30, a number we expect to see rise in the coming months. As temperatures drop, so too does buyer urgency, and sellers may become more patient, letting their listings ride out the winter market in hopes of catching a motivated buyer later on.

Median Days on Market

Luxury Segment

The luxury real estate segment had its biggest turnout of the year so far, with 6 homes selling over $5M and a massive 4 homes selling over $10M. Of interest, 3 of the 4 +$10M sales were lakefronts, the highest selling being 5526 North Lake Boulevard, closing 11% under asking, all cash, for $19.5M. Here’s a price point break down of sales in September:

  • 35 sales <$1M
  • 59 sales >$1m
  • 26 sales >$2m
  • 6 sales >$5M
  • 4 Sales >$10M

Martis Camp has 2 closings in the month of September, one of which being the first 8 figure deal of the year for the community. 8207 Ehrman Drive closed at full asking, all cash, for $11,994,868.

Lahontan also turned in 2 transactions. Of interest, 12316 Garwood Dean upon closing marked the 3rd highest sale on record in Lahontan when it closed 4.2% below asking at $6M.

Schaffer’s Mill had a single transaction 9365 Heartwood Drive closed $200K under asking to $3.1M. Currently there are 23 active properties on the market, which feels like an abundance relative to previous years. Now could be a great time to negotiate a great deal before activity picks up again when the lifts start spinning at the ski resorts.

Gray’s Crossing also posted a single transaction with the closing of another Village at Gray’s Crossing townhome. 10089 Jakes Way closed at asking for $2,255,000. If you’ve been thinking about purchasing one of these brand new, mountain contemporary townhomes then act fast because there’s only a few left.

The Village at Northstar turned in one closing when One Village Place 501 closed $100K under asking down to $1,950,000. When it comes to ski centric properties, now is the time to be negotiating a deal. This way, in ~30 days you’re ready for a FULL season of skiing and/or rental revenue. Contact me to discuss more about optimal purchasing timing.

*** If you even want a report specific to one of Truckee’s luxury communities just let me know, I’m more than happy to send you a customized report detailing a community’s performance.

Incline Village / Crystal Bay Market Update

As we analyze the September 2024 real estate market in Incline Village, Nevada, it is clear that market conditions are entering a new phase, reflective of seasonal shifts and evolving buyer and seller behaviors. The median sales price dropped by 16.2% year-over-year, settling at $1,354,500, and experienced a more pronounced 19.8% drop compared to August 2024. While these declines signal a more buyer-friendly market, closed sales increased by 13.0% from the previous month, demonstrating that savvy buyers are still willing to engage in the market as we approach the winter months. However, the sharp 18.8% year-over-year decline in sales indicates a slower overall pace compared to 2023. The median days on the market jumped significantly to 111 days—up 46.1% from August—reflecting a shift in buyer urgency and the growing patience of sellers.

Inventory also played a major role in September’s market dynamics. The total number of new listings dropped dramatically by 55.1% year-over-year, landing at just 22 new properties for the month. This scarcity, however, was met with a relatively stable active inventory of 200 homes, reflecting a slight decline from August. The months’ supply of inventory stands at 7.7 months, down 15.3% from last month but still representing an increase of 110.4% compared to September 2023. These shifts in inventory and pricing dynamics underscore the importance of strategic positioning for both buyers and sellers as we move into the quieter months of the year. With homes selling at 96.3% of their list price on average, there remains room for negotiation, presenting opportunities for buyers while maintaining strong value propositions for sellers.

Looking Ahead: Q4 and Beyond

As we head into Q4, the Truckee – North Lake Tahoe market is entering its sleepy, snow-dusted phase. This is the time of year when buyers with vision and foresight can truly capitalize on the opportunities that quieter months bring. While activity may slow, the foundational strength of this market remains intact. Expect to see the savvy and the patient benefit, as we enter a phase where both buyers and sellers will play the long game.

Winter is coming, and while the market may cool, there’s still warmth in the opportunities ahead. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply enjoying the beauty of the Tahoe region, now is the time to take stock, make strategic moves, and prepare for what could be an exciting spring 2025 market. After all, Truckee – North Lake Tahoe is more than just a destination—it’s a year-round dream in the making.

Let’s embrace these next few months with optimism and a touch of whimsy as we anticipate the quieter but still promising months ahead.