January showed the potential leveling out of transactions for the year with 48 sales, with December inline tallying up 49 closings. The low number of transactions is relatively normal for Q1, with peak transactions occurring around Labor Day. Still, January represented a 39% decrease in transactions compared to January 2022. The seasonality of our market, the absolute dearth of inventory (1.92 months supply), and Buyer hesitations all combined to result in minimal transactions last month. 

Month over Month Total Sales Transactions

The median list price is down 9% to $1,049,999 with the median sold price also down 13% to $977,500 from December.

Month over Month Pricing Comparisons

The data indicates that the market is continuing to correct itself downward, possibly resetting to a level that it would have been at, had there never been a pandemic. Meaning, in the absence of the pandemic’s catalyzing effect on the market, real estate would have likely appreciated at a more standard rate of ~2-4%, or leveled off until some other substantial impact on the economy forced home values to shift. 

Still, I don’t see the market softening up much more, especially in the wake of positive news:

  • Mortgage rates have fallen for a 4th straight week
  • Fed’s cuts are showing positive effects on inflation (down to 6.5%; the peak was 9.1% in June)
  • GDP is up ~2.9%
  • S&P 500 up to the highest level in 5 months

In Tahoe specifically, current homeowners have a ton of equity in their homes, are locked into very attractive pandemic rates, and are far more qualified and financially stable than previous mortgagors (Dodd Frank). This is essentially a recipe for a strong, bolstered housing market with only minimal depreciation.

As we near spring we’ll begin to see choice inventory hitting the market in the seasonal shift. This will give Buyers more choices and create competition among Sellers. As a Buyer, this could be the opportune time to strike, especially as mortgage rates are trending downward and Sellers are more likely to negotiate on pricing and terms. As a Seller, this really is the best time to sell your home, since pandemic pricing is no longer applicable – reach out for a home valuation and sales strategy today.