As we embrace the heart of winter in Truckee and North Lake Tahoe, the real estate market is reflecting the predictable seasonal shifts while also revealing key trends for the year ahead. January closed with a mixed bag of metrics—sales dipped from December, as expected, yet surged year-over-year. Prices climbed as demand outpaced supply, and buyers showed a willingness to pay for the right home despite extended market times.

Sales & Pricing Trends

January wrapped up with 70 closed transactions, a 16% drop from December, reinforcing the seasonal nature of our market. However, sales remain 19% higher than January 2024, a testament to the region’s growing desirability.

Month-over-Month Total Sales Transactions

Prices continued their upward trajectory, with the median sold price reaching $1,357,500—a 13% jump from December and an 18% increase year-over-year. With limited inventory and strong demand, buyers are proving their willingness to pay for quality properties in a market that remains supply-constrained.

Month-over-Month Sold to List Prices

Market Dynamics: Inventory & Buyer Behavior

Inventory continues to tighten, declining another 3.5% to just 3.03 months’ supply of homes. This seasonal contraction is common, as many sellers wait for spring to list their properties. However, with inventory likely to shrink further in the coming months, sellers who act now may benefit from reduced competition before the spring thaw brings new listings to market.

Months of Inventory

Buyers are negotiating, but not aggressively—homes traded ~2% below asking price in January. This suggests that well-positioned homes are commanding strong offers, and buyers understand that waiting for more options may not necessarily work in their favor.

The median days on market climbed to 51 days, a 13% increase from December and a 28% increase from last year. While this may suggest a more patient approach from buyers, it also reflects the seasonality of Tahoe’s luxury market, where the right buyer often takes time to emerge.

Median Days on Market

Truckee Luxury Segment

Despite the seasonal slowdown, January saw strong activity in Truckee’s most prestigious communities, with buyers continuing to invest in high-end mountain properties. Below is a breakdown of January sales across Martis Camp, Lahontan, Schaffer’s Mill, Northstar Village, Gray’s Crossing, and Old Greenwood, highlighting the resilience and demand in the luxury market. To start, here’s a price point breakdown of sales for the month of January:

  • 26 sales <$1M
  • 44 sales >$1m
  • 17 sales >$2m
  • 5 sales >$5M
  • 2 Sales >$10M

Martis Camp

Martis Camp continues to be the crown jewel of Truckee luxury real estate, recording two high-value sales totaling $18.5 million, one of which being 8354 Valhalla Drive closing $475K under asking down to $11.3M. The average sales price hit an impressive $9.25 million, with a median price matching at $9.25 million. This exclusive enclave remains a top choice for buyers seeking privacy, world-class amenities, and a seamless blend of modern luxury with alpine charm.

Lahontan

Lahontan had a solid start to 2025, with two sales totaling $5.8 million. The average sales price of $2.9 million reflects the strong appeal of this gated golf community, which offers luxury homes in a tranquil, nature-rich setting. With its championship golf course and proximity to Martis Valley, Lahontan continues to attract buyers looking for a refined mountain lifestyle.

Schaffer’s Mill

Schaffer’s Mill saw one notable transaction; 9134 Heartwood Drive closed a massive $150K below asking at $1.95 million. While sales volume was lower this month, demand for this golf and ski community remains consistent. Buyers are drawn to its balance of high-end residences and community-oriented amenities, making it an attractive option for those seeking luxury with a sense of neighborhood connection.

Northstar Village

Northstar Village was the most active of the six communities, logging four sales totaling $6.84 million. The average sales price came in at $1.71 million, with a median price of $1.58 million, reinforcing Northstar’s broad appeal. Buyers continue to see value in this ski-in/ski-out market, where world-class winter recreation meets resort-style living. Ski centric homes tend to see a boost in closings between November and mid-February, as buyers seek to secure their basecamp in time for maximum days on mountain.

Gray’s Crossing

Gray’s Crossing recorded a massive sale with the closing of 11660 China Camp Road at $3.7 million, essentially tying the record for the highest price ever sold in the community, highlighting Gray’s continued strength in the Truckee market. This golf-course community remains a favorite for those looking for a mix of luxury and year-round outdoor accessibility, offering a quieter alternative to nearby resort communities while still providing premier amenities.

Old Greenwood

Old Greenwood saw one sale with 13466 Fairway Drive closing all cash $200K under asking at $2.8 million, reflecting the ongoing demand for this prestigious golf and resort community. With its Jack Nicklaus-designed course and luxury townhomes, Old Greenwood attracts buyers seeking high-end mountain living with access to Tahoe’s best recreational offerings.

Incline Village / Crystal Bay Market Update

The Incline Village real estate market kicked off 2025 with a significant shift in key market indicators. The median sales price landed at $1,135,000, reflecting a 20.4% year-over-year decline and a 39.5% drop from December 2024—a signal that buyers may be gaining more negotiation power in this luxury market. However, inventory levels continue to expand, with active listings reaching 101, marking a 12.2% month-over-month increase and an impressive 70.6% increase compared to January 2024. This surge in supply, now at 14.4 months, suggests a growing buyer-friendly market, creating strategic opportunities for those looking to secure a home in this sought-after Lake Tahoe enclave.

Despite the seasonal slowdown, motivated sellers are still closing deals, with seven total sales in January, though this represents a 72% drop from the previous month. Homes spent longer on the market, with median days on market increasing to 65, up 50.8% from last year. Sellers are receiving 95.6% of their list price, indicating that while buyers are negotiating, properties that are well-priced and positioned in the market are still commanding strong offers. With new listings up 70.6% year-over-year, buyers now have more choices, but sellers must remain competitive. If you’re considering a move in Incline Village, let’s discuss a strategy that ensures maximum value in this evolving real estate landscape.

Looking Ahead: A Promising Year for Tahoe Real Estate

Now one month into 2025, the stage is set for a dynamic year in Truckee – North Lake Tahoe real estate. With demand holding strong and supply still constrained, sellers have an opportunity to capitalize on motivated buyers before the spring listing surge.

For buyers, the winter months present a chance to secure a home before increased competition returns. While snow blankets the Sierra, the real estate market is far from frozen—it’s quietly setting the tone for another year of strong demand and price appreciation.

Thinking of making a move? Let’s talk strategy to ensure you’re positioned for success in this evolving market.