The North Lake Tahoe-Truckee real estate market is definitely evolving.  It seems that the extreme “COVID” activity has eased and, statistically, things are trending to a more “normal” level of activity. My expectation is that supply (new listings) will be increasing significantly over the next few months, but will remain low for the time of year. 

Despite the extreme lack of inventory through winter and early spring, we are still seeing a normal number of sales year to date.  There were 459  residential sales through the end of May which is right at the 5 and 10-year averages (463 and 457 respectively).  104 residences sold in May, which is right at the 5 and 10-year averages for the month (101 and 107 respectively). 

Homes that sell continue to sell quickly.  The median days on market year-to-date in 2022, sits at 10 (11 for closings in May).

And, sale prices continue to hold strong.  For the month of May, the average residential sales price was $1.68M and the median was at $1.35M Year-to-date, the average sales price is $1.8M and the median is $1.25M. 

Comparing those numbers to  2019 (the last “normal” year prior to covid) is incredible.  For January through May 2019, the average single-family home sale was $1.24M and the median was at $729k.  That’s a 77% increase on the average and a 95% increase on the median.

 Diving into active listings, the spring uptick continues.  We are up to 271 residences actively for sale (218 single-family homes and 53 condos), after bottoming out at around 80 in March.  That said, inventory is still at the lowest levels we have seen historically (around 40% of the 10-year average and 60% of the 5-year average) for this time of year. If you are looking to sell, there is still limited competition in most neighborhoods and most price ranges.

The 211 new listings in May marks the lowest May total in 10 years. For 13 consecutive months the number of new listings for that month has been below the 5 and 10 year averages.  In each of those 13 months the number of new listings has been among the 3 lowest totals for that month in the last 10 years. 

The number of pending sales is at 120 (down slightly from 124 last month).  About 110 residences went into contract in May (up from 90 in April).

Current inventory represents a little over 2.5 months of supply relative to May activity. For context, you need 6 months supply to be in a “balanced” market, where it is neither a Sellers or Buyers market.

Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999:  Year to date,  144 residences sold between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 31% of total sales.   For the same period in 2021, 41% of sales were in this price range.

High End Home Sales $1,000,000 to $1,999,999:   For the period 167 residences have sold between $1m – $2m, representing 36% of total sales.  For the same period in 2021, homes sold in this price range represented 31% of total sales.

Luxury Home Sales Over $2 Million:   113 residences have sold over $2 million, representing 25% of sales.  This includes 22 sales over $5 million, of which 11 are over $10 million, and 1 over $20 million.  For the same period in 2021, 100 homes sold over $2 million, representing 16% of sales. 

What’s Going On Looking Forward?

The real estate market is definitely evolving.  It seems that the extreme “COVID” activity has eased and, statistically, things are trending to a more “normal” level of activity.  If you compare activity YTD to 2021, it gives the appearance that things are quite slow.  However, if you eliminate the COVID bump and compare only to years 2019 and earlier, it gives the appearance that things are much more active than normal (especially if you look at the low number of days on market for sold properties). 

What lies ahead this summer – traditionally Tahoe-Truckee’s busiest season?  

The shortage of inventory, and lack of new supply, are still a big force in the market.  However, there are significant questions about how strong demand will be this summer.  There are major variables like inflation, a possible recession, interest rates, the Russia-Ukraine War, short-term rental regulations (call if you have questions!), and mother nature, that are going to have an impact on demand. 

We are very interested to see just how big an impact it is.   My expectation is that supply (new listings and inventory) will be increasing significantly over the next few months, but will remain low for the time of year.  If that holds true, we will see a decrease in the number of transactions compared to past years (not just compared to 2020-21, but also the more “normal” years prior). 

For the last month, multiple offers on properties have become less common and bidding wars (5+ offers) have almost gone away.  Sellers are still in the driver’s seat but buyers have some real leverage for the first time in 2 years.