October brought a noticeable shift in momentum across the Truckee–North Lake Tahoe real estate landscape, one that blends changing buyer psychology, seasonal inventory adjustments, and broader macroeconomic expectations. While the numbers offer valuable insight, the real story is happening on the ground: buyers are selective, sellers are recalibrating, and the market is quietly setting the stage for what could be a very opportunistic winter for well-positioned purchasers.
Sales Activity & Market Pace
October closed out with 132 sales, marking a slight 5% dip from September, yet a notable 23% jump from October 2024. This is one of the clearest indicators that buyers are still engaging, just on their own terms and in carefully chosen scenarios. The year-over-year surge in closed sales proves that demand remains healthy; it’s simply more discerning than ever.
Month-over-Month Total Sales Transactions
The median days on market (DOM) finally eased downward to 54 days, compared to 57 in September. While this remains meaningfully higher than last year’s brisk 40 DOM, the subtle month-over-month tightening suggests that serious buyers are stepping forward when properties are priced and presented correctly.
Median Days on Market
Pricing & Value Trends
The median sold price for October settled at $1,000,000, a 9% month-over-month decline, leaving prices only 2% higher than last October. The flattening year-over-year gains illustrate exactly what we’re feeling in real time: buyers are uninterested in competing, uninterested in overpaying, and unwilling to “stretch” the way they did in the pandemic years. Instead, they are laser-focused on value; and sellers who price for today’s psychology rather than yesterday’s headlines are the ones seeing activity.
Month-over-Month Sold to List Prices
On average, homes sold 5.5% below asking, a clear sign that negotiation power has shifted. This is where strategic pricing, upfront preparation, and intelligent positioning matter more than ever. Those who meet the market are selling. Those who push against it are sitting.
Inventory & Market Balance
Inventory continued its downward trend, dropping 22% from September, and stands roughly unchanged year-over-year. Today, the market sits at 4.2 months of inventory, a level that signals balance but hints at tightening conditions ahead as we transition into winter.
Months of Inventory
With fewer homes coming to market and many sellers choosing to wait until spring, the properties available today are competing for an increasingly serious buyer pool. Winter in the Sierra doesn’t slow demand…it concentrates it.
October continued the cooling trend in the high-end segment, but not without strength where quality and pricing aligned. Luxury buyers across Truckee and North Lake Tahoe are more intentional, less driven by FOMO and more by value clarity. Sales volume dipped slightly from September’s pace, yet the homes that did trade reflected strong lifestyle alignment: newer builds, turnkey readiness, and premium locations. Average days on market widened modestly, suggesting buyers are taking their time to make confident, data-driven decisions in an evolving interest-rate landscape.
65 sales <$1M
67 sales >$1m
23 sales >$2m
6 sales >$5M
2 Sales >$10M
Martis Camp
Martis Camp, as always, led the pack in both price and prestige, finishing the month with three closings. Of note, the community offered up an eight figure sale with 8720 Boscobel Court closing $250K ABOVE asking at $18,750,000. While volume slowed slightly from September’s flurry, the price per square foot averaged an impressive $1,501, one of the highest in the region. Homes continue to command a premium when architectural distinction and proximity to Camp amenities intersect; affirming Martis Camp’s role as the North Tahoe benchmark for ultra-luxury demand.
Lahontan
Lahontan maintained steady velocity with two notable October closings ranging from $4.65 million to $5.1 million, averaging nearly $1,000 per square foot. Compared with September, activity ticked up slightly, and new-construction homes continued to outperform older inventory. Buyers remain drawn to Lahontan’s gated privacy, golf-centric community, and proximity to Truckee’s growing year-round amenities. Of note, 7745 Lahontan Drive closed a notable 7% below asking down to $5.1M.
Gray’s Crossing
Gray’s Crossing recorded two October closings, one of which achieved a 100% sale-to-list ratio (11777 China Camp Road), highlighting continued confidence in well-priced, contemporary product. With median prices hovering in the mid-$2 million range, the community remains a popular alternative to the Martis Valley gated luxury communities. Compared to September, Gray’s Crossing held steady on both pricing and pace, showing resilience even as broader market activity moderated.
Old Greenwood
Activity in Old Greenwood softened through October with a single property changing hands in October. 13107 Fairway Drive #5A closed full asking for $1.35M. However, properties with turnkey condition and strong rental potential continue to draw investor interest. The upcoming ski season should reinvigorate interest here as buyers look for dual-use vacation homes with year-round access and short-term rental flexibility.
Northstar Homes
The Northstar Homes community recorded three sales in October, a strong continuation of September’s momentum even as broader market activity began to taper. Closed prices ranged primarily in the mid-$2 million bracket, reflecting steady demand for single-family homes offering proximity to the Village and access to NPOA amenities (just $1,700 annually). The average price per square foot held firm near the $600 mark, underscoring that well-maintained, move-in-ready properties remain highly desirable. Days on market trended slightly longer than last month, consistent with the wider ski resort home market, but buyers who stepped in were notably decisive, seeking quality craftsmanship and lifestyle convenience rather than speculative investment. As ski season approaches, Northstar Homes continues to stand out as one of the most dependable performers in the resort luxury category. Of interest, 125 Basque closed 11.6% below asking down to $2.15M after spending 134 days on market.
Northstar Village
The Northstar Village segment posted a single closing in October (Timber Creek Lodge #237), a notable step back from September’s cluster of transactions but indicative of community ready to ramp up fast due to the amount of available options on the market. While volume eased, the Village continues to demonstrate its unique positioning as a dual-purpose investment and lifestyle opportunity. With limited new inventory expected heading into winter, even a single sale speaks volumes: when something exceptional comes to market here, it moves quickly and confidently. Currently there are three homes in contract and with ski season just around the corner NOW is the time to secure a Village home.
Incline Village / Crystal Bay Market Update
The Incline Village real estate market delivered a fascinating blend of strength and recalibration this October, underscoring why strategic guidance is more important than ever for buyers and sellers navigating Lake Tahoe’s premier luxury enclave. The median sales price climbed to $1,845,500, up a significant 25.1% month-over-month and 49.2% year-over-year, signaling that properly priced, well-positioned homes continue to command top-dollar across the North Shore. Inventory remained relatively tight, with just 171 active listings and a modest 29 new listings introduced, down 12.1% from September, while the months supply of inventory rose to 6.6, a 21.2% month-over-month increase that hints at a subtle shift toward more balanced conditions. Despite the premium pricing environment, homes sold at 95% of list price, reflecting a marketplace where serious buyers are still stepping forward, but with clear expectations around value.
Activity levels, however, tell a more nuanced story; one that mirrors broader buyer sentiment across resort-driven luxury markets. Closed sales dropped to 26, marking declines of 21.2% month-over-month and 31.6% year-over-year, while median days on market rose sharply to 98, up 81.5% from September. Buyers remain highly selective, moving only when a property aligns perfectly with lifestyle goals and pricing reality. Meanwhile, sellers who adapt to today’s conditions, by pricing strategically, elevating presentation, and understanding the emotional component of a luxury purchase, are the ones achieving success. As Incline Village heads into winter and demand builds from Bay Area, Nevada, and international buyers seeking year-round recreation and tax benefits, opportunities remain abundant for those guided by clear data and expert market insight. If you’re preparing to buy or sell in Incline Village, now is the time to partner with a seasoned advisor who understands both the numbers and the nuances driving this evolving 2025 market.
What’s Really Happening on the Ground
Statistics tell one part of the story; the boots-on-the-ground reality tells another.
Today’s buyers are thoughtful, patient, and uninterested in friction. They crave a great deal, a stress-free transaction, and the confidence that they’re purchasing smartly in a changing economy. Many are financially strong but emotionally “value-driven.” They are not bidding against each other, and they are certainly not chasing overpriced listings. That era is long gone.
Sellers, meanwhile, are increasingly recognizing that success requires understanding this new buyer mindset. The ones who adjust, both in price and presentation, are getting results. The ones who cling to yesterday’s market are watching today’s buyers walk past them.
Looking Ahead
As we step fully into fall and the first dustings of winter grace the mountains, the Truckee–North Lake Tahoe market is entering one of its most advantageous buying windows of the year. With ski season on the horizon, motivated buyers are stepping forward to secure a home base for an entire season of fresh powder, cozy fires, and mountain living at its best.
The broader national economic picture continues to stabilize, sentiment is improving, and interest rate clarity is helping buyers confidently plan for the long term. While October’s numbers might appear soft at a glance, seasoned observers know that this moment is less about weakness, and more about recalibration.
The story of 2025 real estate in our region isn’t one of decline. It’s one of alignment. Buyers and sellers finding middle ground. Value replacing frenzy. Strategy replacing emotion. And opportunity quietly opening for those who know where to look.
As always, I’m here to guide my clients through these shifts with clarity, confidence, and unmatched local expertise. If you’re considering purchasing before the snowpack builds, or preparing to list heading into winter, now is an ideal moment to start the conversation.
