As autumn settles over the Sierra, the Truckee–North Lake Tahoe real estate market continues to reveal a compelling mix of resilience and recalibration. September brought both a surge in transactional momentum and a continued evolution in pricing dynamics; signaling a market that is active, yet firmly in buyers’ hands. For sellers and buyers alike, this is a season where strategy matters more than ever.
Sales Surge Amid Shifting Price Landscape
September closed with 139 completed sales, marking a 7.75% increase from August and an impressive 48% jump year-over-year. This robust activity confirms what we’ve been sensing on the ground: buyers are out there and deals are getting done; but the terms are changing.
Month-over-Month Total Sales Transactions
The median sold price fell to $1,100,000, representing a 4.3% month-over-month and 9.4% year-over-year decline. This is the third consecutive month of price softening, reinforcing that today’s buyers are price-sensitive and unwilling to stretch for homes that don’t present clear value.
Month-over-Month Sold to List Prices
Pricing Power Shifts to Buyers
Homes traded at 4.3% below asking price on average in September, as sellers increasingly negotiated to meet market reality. Simultaneously, inventory fell 18% month-over-month, but remains 7.3% higher than this time last year. With 5.41 months of inventory currently available, the market sits squarely in buyer’s territory; offering choice, leverage, and time for calculated decisions.
Months of Inventory
Meanwhile, median days on market rose again to 57, up sharply from 39 in July and nearly double the 30 days recorded a year ago. Homes that are priced tightly and presented well are still moving, but overpriced listings are lingering longer and often require strategic adjustments to secure offers.
Median Days on Market
The luxury segment of the Truckee–North Lake Tahoe real estate market held firm through September, with continued strength in Martis Camp driving overall volume. While the broader market saw softening prices and longer market times, luxury buyers remained active, albeit more deliberate, leading to selective but notable high-value transactions. Compared to August, overall median prices in the luxury tier pulled back slightly, and days on market lengthened, signaling that buyers are taking more time to evaluate their options while sellers remain confident in premium pricing.
59 sales <$1M
80 sales >$1m
37 sales >$2m
9 sales >$5M
7 Sales >$10M
Martis Camp led the luxury market with seven sales, a median of $10.4M (~$1,795/sqft), and an average DOM of 144. Five of these sales were 8 figure deals, truly a remarkable feat for the community. While pricing remained exceptionally strong, homes sold at ~93.3% of list, indicating buyers are negotiating more than in August. The longer market times reflect a more deliberate pace at the ultra-luxury level heading into fall. Of interest, 8142 Valhalla Drive marked the second highest sale ever recorded in the community when it closed 16% below asking at $21.5M.
13050/13060 Camp Trail was the one and only sale at $3.995M (~$1,327/sqft) with a relatively brisk ~64 DOM and a ~7.1% discount to ask (avg sale-to-list 92.91%). The premium $/sqft signals that top-tier product still commands strong pricing, but unlike August buyers negotiated meaningfully to get deals done.
Schaffer’s Mill registered three single family home sales with a median of $2.65M (~$810/sqft), ~139 DOM, and an average ~5.1% discount (sale-to-list 94.92%). Versus August, absorption slowed and buyers leaned into value-driven offers; listings that lag price-wise are taking longer to trade, while well-aligned homes continue to move.
Old Greenwood saw two luxury closings, with a median of $2.80M (~$839/sqft), ~68 DOM, and an average ~5.0% below ask (sale-to-list 94.99%). Relative to August’s momentum, September shows steady, value-oriented demand. Homes that are well-positioned and sensibly priced are still converting without excessive time on market. Of note, 12382 Caleb Drive closed 5.5% under asking at $2.75M after spending 68 days on market.
Gray’s Crossing posted one sale with 11711 Ghirard Road closing at $2.40M (~$734/sqft). The property took ~125 DOM and closed at roughly 5.9% below ask (avg sale-to-list 94.15%). Compared with August’s near-ask dynamic, September buyers here pushed for (and received) deeper concessions, and longer time on market underscores the need for surgical pricing going into fall.
Northstar posted two sales with a median of $1.16M (~$578/sqft) and an average DOM of 67, showing that well-priced homes are still moving efficiently. However, the average sale-to-list ratio slipped to ~89.7%, a clear shift from August’s near-ask environment as buyers gained leverage.
Incline Village / Crystal Bay Market Update
The Incline Village real estate market experienced a notable seasonal correction in September 2025, with median home prices settling at $1,475,000; a 27.4% drop month-over-month, but still 8.9% higher than September 2024. This pricing pattern reflects a market that remains structurally strong year-over-year, even as fall brings softer month-to-month dynamics. Closed sales fell 29.5% from August, totaling 31 transactions, while median days on market tightened to just 49 days, a dramatic 58% faster than last year but slightly slower compared to late-summer’s frenzied pace. Sellers received 95.1% of list price on average, down slightly from August, as buyers took advantage of the shifting leverage to negotiate more strategically.
Inventory Growth & Shifting Buyer Dynamics
New listings tapered to 29 for the month (-4.4% vs. August), while active inventory climbed 13% year-over-year to 191 homes. This combination pushed months of supply up to 6.2 — a 29.7% increase month-over-month, signaling that the market is evolving toward a more balanced environment. With median sold price per square foot at $742 (-4.4% vs. August) and days on market holding relatively steady, Incline Village is entering the fall selling season with ample opportunities for value-driven buyers and motivated sellers recalibrating to the new pace. For luxury and second-home segments in particular, this transitional period favors strategic pricing and elevated marketing execution; key advantages I deliver as your trusted real estate advisor in the Tahoe region.
Looking Ahead: A Market of Opportunity
As we turn the page to fall, the Truckee–Tahoe market enters one of its most exciting transitional moments of the year. The crisp air, quieter streets, and the countdown to ski season make autumn an ideal time for buyers to secure their mountain home ahead of a full winter in the Sierra.
Yes, national economic uncertainty, ranging from interest rate policy debates to global market fluctuations, continues to shape sentiment. But locally, well-qualified buyers are still active, inventory is turning, and smartly priced properties are finding new owners. This is not a market to test buyers’ patience with aspirational pricing; it’s a market where precision, presentation, and negotiation savvy separate success from stagnation.
For sellers, the playbook is clear: align pricing tightly with market conditions and lean into strategic negotiation. For buyers, the current landscape offers rare leverage; attractive prices, negotiable terms, and the luxury of choice.
As the leaves turn and the first snowflakes draw near, opportunity is quietly knocking across Truckee and North Lake Tahoe. Whether buying or selling, those who move decisively and intelligently this fall are positioning themselves for success in 2026. After all, securing your Tahoe home now means you’ll be first in line for a full year of skiing, après adventures, and mountain living at its best.
