As we await our first real snowstorm of the season, the Tahoe - Truckee real estate market begins to enter its hibernation period. November brought in 82 sales, a 36% decrease from the month prior but almost even with the year prior with 88 sales. Currently, there are 57 properties in contract, with ~47 slated to close before the new year. As an early end-of-year prediction, assuming all 47 properties close before the new year, plus a dashing of some quick all-cash deals, the year will end with a little under 1,000 sales. For context, the last time we saw sales totals that low was in 2011, just as the world was digging itself out of the Great Recession.
Month-over-Month Total Sales Transactions
The median sold price decreased to $1,090,000, a mere 2% decrease from the month prior but a stark 18% increase from the previous year. With the median list price hovering around $1,172,000, homes are closing ~93% of asking. This represents the most significant monthly seller capitulation of the year, meaning that although the numbers show a slight Seller’s market, Buyers can fully leverage market uncertainty and secure homes well below asking price. All this data indicates is that the market continues to trudge through this era of stagnation (feel free to use that one), where low inventory, marooned ~3% homeowners, elevated interest rates, and seasonal fluctuation collide to jam up the market.
Month-over-Month Total Sales Transactions
Inventory further decreased, down 13% to about three months of inventory on the market, and is 12% higher than the year prior. Average days on market are up from 42 to 50, close to the year prior at 58.
Months of Inventory
Average Days on Market
As for the luxury market, November was a little sleepier due to seasonal fluctuations and broader economic conditions. I should note that using the term "luxury market" is a very abstract term. What do I consider luxury in my market? For the purpose of keeping data concise for market updates, instead of using minimum price points, I measure activity within the resort-centric communities such as Martis Camp, Schaffer's Mill, Gray's Crossing, etc. I have sold property in every single one of these communities, from Martis Camp to Mountainside, and I currently hold the record for the highest price per sqft ever sold in Gray's Crossing at $1,023/sqft. Okay, enough of me tooting my horn; let's see how the resort communities did in November.
Martis Camp reported a single, large transaction with 9505 Dunsmuir Way closing 13% under its original asking price down to $9.55M. With 3 homes pending sale, Martis will surely have a strong finish for the end of the year. Currently, with 27 sales for 2023, Martis will likely end the year about even with the year prior. However, median sale price is estimated to be down 9.7% from the year prior, marking the first time since ~2016 that median sale price did not increase.
Lahontan was quiet for the month of November with zero closings. With only one home in contract at the moment, and scheduled to close before the new year, the community is on track to see a 36% drop in sales from the year prior. The community is projected to see a 5% increase in median home sale price for the year 2023. This increase in sales price is notably due to several new builds closing above $5M and even one above $6M (13150 Snowshoe Thompson).
Schaffer's Mill had a flurry of activity with 2 mountain lodges and 1 single family home closing. Of interest, 9321 Heartwood Drive closed a massive 26% below asking price. With 21 total transaction for the year, and another one scheduled to close before the new year, Schaffer's will clear the year slightly better than the year prior at 19 and dead even with 2021. Far more impressive is that the community is projected to end the year with a median sale price of $2.25M, a solid 5% increase from 2022.
Gray's Crossing only reported a single transaction with one of the new Village at Gray's Crossing townhomes (10131 Jakes Way) closing at full asking for $1,815,000. The community has tallied up 20 closing this year with another 3 slated to close before the new year. This would mark 4 more transactions then the year prior with median sale price projected to roughly match the year prior at $2.7M.
Old Greenwood posted 2 sales, most notably 13535 Fairway Drive close 2% over asking at $2.8M. The home has traded hands 3 times in the past 5 years; at this point I'm wondering if the home is actually haunted. With nothing in the hopper, in terms of contingent properties, OG is looking to end the year with a meager 8 transactions. This would be the lowest turnout for the community since 2016. Median sale price is projected to rival the year prior at ~$1.5M, however it's important to note that OG, especially, tends to have more townhome sales then single family home sales. This is mainly due to the communities size, in that there are less single family homes relative to other resort communities that comprise both SF and townhomes (Gray's and Schaffer's). As such, median sale prices can fluctuate depending on what type of unit is selling in the community.
Northstar Village had 2 sales, of major note was an offer market, all cash, full asking offer on Great Bear 501 for $3.55M. With 22 closings so far this year, plus another one slated to close before the new year, the Village slightly surpassed the previous year's tally of 21 but, for broader context, will mirror numbers more common with pre-pandemic sales. Of major interest is that the Village is on track to report a 9% increase in median sale prices. Despite turbulence with some building's maintaining fire insurance, consumers continue to see that owning in the heart of Northstar is an attractive long term investment, both financially and personally.
Northstar Homes had a great turn out last month with 4 sales but November was much quieter with only 177 Basque closing 4.5% under asking to $1.65M. The community has seen 26 transactions this year with one more on the way before the new year. With 2022 posting 29 sales, this year will come up a bit short but still strong relative to years past. Median sale prices are projected to have dropped 9% from the previous year to ~$1.63M. This decline has more to do with a few more Big Springs homes having transacted in 2022 versus 2023, thereby throwing off overall Northstar home numbers.
Mountainside reported yet another month of no sales, the last transaction having occurred back in September when 14467 Home Run Trail closed a substantial $250K below asking to $3.5M. Still, the community will close the year far better than the last with 11 closings, relative to 2022's count of 5. The year will close out with median sale prices running close to the previous 2 years, at around $3.1M. This is a very small, exclusive community so if you're serious about owning in this unique community then please call me to get a game plan together.
The Incline Village market continues to showcase a slight Buyer's market; helping that position is data showing that 53% of homes on the market recorded having price reductions (past 7 day average). Median listing prices have increased substantially from this time last month to $3.8M. However, this is down greatly from the Spring/Summer months where the peak was $4.5M. Average days on market are up 15% to 184 days on market, while Inventory is down 20% from the last peak in early August and down 10% from the year prior. Incline Village is a vastly different animal than Truckee and the California side of Lake Tahoe. If you’re interested in purchasing in the community please reach out so that I can explain some of the nuances behind this unique town.
We are only mere weeks away from the New Year and people want to know what I see in my crystal ball. Interest rates have come down a pinch but it’s still too early to tell if this is the beginning of a sizable downward trajectory. The stock market has been on the rise since sinking to a low point back in October, now approaching the record heights seen in Q4 2021 (or even surpassing depending on if you’re looking at S&P500 or the DJI). The Fed appears to be backing off from future interest rates, opting to hold tight and possibly begin to consider easing the throttle back.
Unless some unforeseen catastrophe strikes our economy, which drastically reduces demand and/or increases supply, then 2024 will likely look very similar to 2023. However, even the slightest decrease in rates could see an uptick in Buyer activity in 2024, especially around those key transaction months in the summer. Couple that with an improving equities market and we could see a sizable number of Buyer and Sellers returning to the market.
By spring 2024 consumers will have a much better idea of which way the mortgage market is heading and respond according to their comfort levels. As a more established agent I have been busy in 2023, securing very favorable deal for both Buyers and Sellers. I believe that regardless of market conditions, opportunities are out there if you know where to look and you have an agent that can negotiate the very best outcomes. If you’re looking to buy or sell in the Tahoe – Truckee area I would be honored to serve you.