In August 2022, there were 125 residential home sales in the Truckee-Tahoe region – the second lowest number of August sales in the last ten years. However, come September and thanks to the strong start to the year, we’re not too far off YTD home sales averages. 

Homes that sold continued to sell quickly through September.  The median days-on-market for closed sales in Truckee-Tahoe was 18 days, which is up from 12 days in August, but still well below historical averages.  That said, I predict that the average days-on-market will continue to increase, and we can expect it to approach the pre-COVID median in the low 30s.

Median and Average Sales Prices:   

Sales prices have fallen off from highs

Price reductions are commonplace – about 10% of listings have reduced their price each week for the last 3 weeks. No two homes or locations are alike in this area, so it’s always hard to tell how far prices have moved.  But rest assured that prices are still at a premium from where they stood in 2019.  For the month of September, the average residential sales price was $1.34M, and the median was at $955k.  Comparatively, for the first 8 months of the year, the average sales price was $1.68M, and the median was $1.15M. 

The 2022 YTD average for single-family homes in Truckee-Tahoe is $1.9M (up from $1.76M in the first half of 2021), with a median of $1.25M (up from $1.2M in the first half of 2021).  The month of September came in at an average of $1.47M and a median of $1M.  Comparing those numbers to  2019 (the last “normal” year before covid) is incredible – for the first half of 2019, the average single-family home sale was $1.23M, and the median was $755k. 

Active Residential Inventory:

Active Listings: 

We are winding down on the summer season when we typically see the highest inventory level on the market.  Since the 4th of July weekend, the inventory of residences for sale had been buoying between 345 – 360, but dipped to 326 in mid-September.  Last year, at this time, there were about 180 residences actively for sale.  However, in September 2019, the inventory was closer to 650.  Looking at long-term numbers, inventory is still at the lowest levels we have seen historically before COVID (around 60% of the average for the 5 years before COVID and 40% of the 10-year average) for this time of year.

For 16 consecutive months, the number of new home listings in Truckee-Tahoe for that month has been below the 5 and 10-year averages.  In each of those 16 months, the number of new listings has been among the 3 lowest totals for that month in the last 10 years. 

Current inventory represents a little over 2.7 months of supply relative to August activity.  Historically any number below 5 months of supply is considered a seller’s market.  But, this is a much more balanced market than what we saw the last 2 years, when months of inventory consistently hovered around 1.

Sales Under $500,000 >  

Through September, there were 50 residential sales under $500k, representing 6% of total sales.  In the same period in 2021, 9% of sales were in this range. 

Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $1M >  

Year to date, 284 residences sold between $500k and $1M, representing 35% of total sales.   In 2021, 42% of sales were in this price range for the same period.

High-End Home Sales $1M to $2M >  

For the period, 301 residences have sold between $1M – $2M, representing 38% of total sales.  For the same period in 2021, homes sold in this price range represented 33% of total sales.

Luxury Home Sales Over $2M >  

166 residences have sold over $2M, representing 21% of sales.  This includes 36 sales over $5M, of which 11 are over $10M, and one over $20M.  In 2021, 183 homes sold over $2M for the same period, representing 16% of sales. 

What’s Going On Looking Forward?

I expect below “normal” (by pre-COVID standards) activity, measured by the number of transactions, through the end of the year.  And I anticipate many sellers withdrawing or canceling their listings as we head into fall and winter.  My hunch is the slowing demand will be matched by limited supply, making for a quiet winter.

Sellers are still in the driver’s seat, but buyers have some real leverage for the first time in 2 years, with homes on average going for 2.4% below the asking price!